地震序列类型的灰关联分析

THE GREY RELATIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE TYPES

摘要:

本文用灰色系统理论中的灰关联分析方法研究地震序列类型的识别。以应力降(Δδ)、地震矩(M₀)、破裂速度(V)、余震区长度(L)和宽度(D)、主震和最大余震震级差(ΔM)、余震序列的a值、b值和P值作为关联因子,同时把待研究的地震作为参考数列(X₀),一些已知历史地震作为比较数列(X_i)进行灰关联分析。另外,本文还就一旦某地发生大地震,如何用灰关联分析方法迅速确定该地震的序列类型作了探讨。结果表明,灰关联分析法是识别地震序列类型的一种行之有效的方法,具有一定的实用价值。

Abstract:

In this paper,we study the earthquake sequence types using the grey relational analysis in grey system theory.The stress drop (△δ),seismic moment (M₀),rupture speed (V),length (L) and width (D) of the aftershock region,magnitude difference between the main shock and the largest aftershock (△M) and a-value,b-value as well as P-value in aftershock sequence are considered as grey relational factors,at the same time the earthquake studied is considered as reference sequence of number (X₀) and some historical earthquakes are considered as comparative sequence of number (X_i),when we carry out grey relational analysis.In addition,a great earthquake once occurred in some region,how to determine the earthquake sequence type rapidly using the grey relational analysis is also studied.The results show that this method is a good useful method and it is of certain practical value to us.