地震预报确定率、报准率和成功率的计算

CALCULATION OF THE RATES OF DETERMINATION,PRECISION AND SUCCESS FOR THE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

摘要:

本文提出一种评价地震预报意见的定量化方法。对于任一种预报意见的确定率、报准率和成功率均以数学公式表示。最后以1975~1984年我国年度地震趋势预报意见为例,进行了计算和分析。结果表明我国的地震中期预报水平还很低。

Abstract:

In this study,we present a quantitative method which can estima-te the opinion of the earthquake prediction by using a series of for-mulas to calculate the rates of determination,precision and success for various opinions in earthquake prediction.Finally,as an example,the rates of determination,precision and success for annual earthquake prediction in China from 1975 to 1984 have been calculated and analysed.The results show that the level of the seismic midterm prediction in China is still very low.