1967-1982年康定——炉霍带MS≥6.0级地震前的地震活动图象

SEISMIC PATTERNS OF KANGDING-LUHUO SEISMIC ZONE BEFORE STRONG EARTHQUAKES(M≥6.0) DURING 1967-1982

摘要:

本文按照克依利斯博罗克和诺波夫等关于强震前兆的三种图象-即余震爆发图象b、震群图象S以及加权和图象∑的定义,以康定-炉霍地震带为例,检验了这三种图象的存在及其预报效果。结果表明,1967-1982年,该带5次M_S≥6.0级的强震前,可能生成一种、两种甚至全部三种图象。这三种图象的预报效果都是相当令人满意的,尤其是图象∑的预报效果更佳。

Abstract:

In this paper, according to three kinds of seismic patterns as precursory of strong earthquakes, i. e. aftershock burst pattern b, earthquake swarm patterns and weight sum pattern ∑, put forward by Keilis-borok and Knopoff et al., taking Kangding-Luhuo seismic zone as a example, the existence and prediction effect of three kinds of seismic patterns are tested. The results show that, during 1967-1982, one, two and all of three kinds of seismic patterns can be produced in the seismic zone before 5 strong earthquakes (M≥6.0). The prediction effect of three kinds of patterns are rather satisfactory. Particularly, the prediction effect of the weight sum pattern ∑ is better. When the value of the pattern ∑ exceeds certain threshold value, there always were earthquakes (M≥0.6) to occur afterwards. Simultaneous appearance of two or three kinds of patterns can eliminate false forecast and improve the accuracy of earthquake prediction.