序列分析法在以震报震研究中的应用

SEQUENCE ANALYSIS METHOD AND ITS APPLICATION IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

摘要:

本文利用文献[1]中给出的公式:
q_N+1=a₁q_N+a₂q_N-1+a₃q_N-2+………+a_pq_N-p+1对甘肃地区的地震序列(M≥4.0)、南北带北段地震序列(M≥4.0)及全国的强震序列(M≥7.0)进行线性外推,预测未来某时段的震情,经检验,其效果是较好的。

Abstract:

It is better to forecast the occurrence of an event by using pure-linear extrapolated method if the event is a stationary stochastic process. We are certain that the historical earthquake sequence is frequently non-stationary, but this non-stationary stochastic process can be transferred into stationary one by mathematical processing. We take the sequence of stress variation, that is the cube root of the released energy of an earthquake, ³√E, as seismic sequence.
In this paper, we forecast the seismic events of certain future period based on linear extrapolation of seismic sequences, which are M≥4.0 in Gansu province, M≥4.0 in the northern section of the North-South Seismic Zone and M≥7.0 in mainland China, respectively, using the expression of the reference 1:
g_N+1=a₁g_N+a₂g_N-1+a₃g_N-2+…+a_pg_N-P+1
And the result is satisfactory from the point of view of test.