Based on correlation of horizontal dislocation with the length of betrunked gulch, it is proposed that the active Ertai Fault had ruptured 5 times since Holocene. The earthquake of M=8 took place during every stick-slip fracturing. Paleoseismic recurrence period was approximately 1800 yrs. We have estimated that the Ertai Fault will rupture again in the 3700 A. D. The earthquake will occur on the southern end of the active fault. This estimation is suppored by severed evidences, such as the surface of multi-seismic fault, multible cliff of displacement, seismic colluvial deposits and excavation.
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柏美祥,罗福忠.二台活断层的多次粘滑破裂和古地震复现期[J].地震工程学报,1987,9(2):81-87. Bo Meixiang, Luo Fuzhong. MULTIPLE STICIK-SLIP FRACTURING AND PALEOSEISMIC RECURRENCE PERIOD ON THE ERTAI ACTIVE FAULT[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,1987,9(2):81-87.