1904-1980年全球浅源地震能量释放的隐含周期性探讨

THE PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION ON THE LATENT PERIODICITY OF THE ENERGY'S RELEASE FOR THE GLOBAL SHALLOW EARTHQUAKES FROM 1904 TO 1980

摘要:

本文求取了1904-1980年全球浅源地震释放能量时间序列的付氏谱、布莱克曼-图基谱和最大熵谱。由不同的取样方式和功率谱的计算方法,确定其地震能量释放较为可信的隐含周期约为9.1年、14.4年、45.4年和128年,且这些主要周期成份之间存在整数因子3和5。用互功率谱法求取了这些主周期成份的初相,从而确定了这些周期成份取最大值的时间,并与地震能量释放时间序列进行了对比,推测下一个全球浅源地震能量释放高潮期约在1990-1994年左右。

Abstract:

This paper calcilates the normal Fourier power spectrum (NFS),Blackman-Turkey power spectrum (BTS) and maximum entropy power spectrum (MES) of the time series of the energy's release for the global shallow earthquakes from 1904 to 1980.By use of the various modes of sampling and methods of the estimation of the power spectrum,it is obtained that the more confident latent periods of the energy's release of earthqukes were 9.1,14.4,45.4 and 128 years,and there are the integer ratio's factors,3 and 5,between these primary periodic components.By means of the cross-power spectrum's method.We obtain.aswell,the initial phases of these primary periodic components,hence,estimate the time of their maximum values,compare them with the time series of the energy's release for earthquakes,and guesse that the next high level's period of the energy's release for the global shallow earthquakes will be about 1990-1994 years.