滑坡宏观征兆的初步分析与研究

PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS AND STUDY ON THE MACROSCOPIC PRECURSORS OF LANDSLIDE

摘要:

实地调查表明,许多大型滑坡发生之前,往往出现一系列突发性的宏观征兆和异常现象。本文通过这些征兆、异常现象及其时、空分布与形成物理机制的分析研究,探讨了预测大滑坡发生的时间及其可能性。初步研究认为:
1.大、中型滑坡的发生,大多伴有滑前宏观征兆和某些特殊异常现象。这些异常和征兆具有明显的时、空分布和一定的序列特征。
2.根据这些异常和征兆特征及其与滑体运动之间的关系,提出了大、中型滑坡在临近主滑时间的各种宏观标志和异常信息。
3.根据这些标志信息,预测预报大、中型滑坡的发生,鉴定预滑体的稳定性和滑动趋势是可能的。
此外,对滑前宏观征兆与地震宏观前兆的区别问题及其意义,也作了相应的讨论。

Abstract:

The field investigation has told us that a series of macroscopic precursors and anomalous phenomena suddenly arise before many of large-middle scale landslides happen. In this paper, to forecast both the time and the probobility of the occurrence of large-middle scale landslides is discussed by analysing and studying the precursors and the anomolies, their temporal-spatial distribution and their physical mechanism. Results of priminary study are:
1. The occurring of most of large-middle scale landslides is companied, before theevents with macroscopic precursors and some particular anomalous phenomena which are of obviously temporal-spatial distribution and characteristics of some sequences.
2. Accoding to the relationship between the macroscopic precursors (or anomolies)and the motion of the slide-body, the author has raised several macroscopic symbles and anomalous messages which appear close to the time when major slide of large-middle scale landslides occurs.
3. The result shows that it seems probable to forecast and pre-dict the occurring of large-middle scale landslides, and to identify the stability and the slide tendency of the slide-body according to these symbles and messages.
4. In addition, it has been also discussed how to distinguish the macroscopic precursors of both landslide and earthquake.