临震预报的广义调制模式

ON THE GENERAL MODULATION MODEL FOR IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

摘要:

1978年以来,我们提出了短临预报的调制模式。这个模式把震源过程、前兆和外因(如磁暴,固体潮和大气压力变化)有机地结合起来。本文进一步把调制模式广义化,即调制可分:过源调制、过场调制、无震调制和直接调制,调制的对象除地学现象外,把人和生物也包括在内。调制模式预报地震的思想是:大震前震源地方和其附近的调整场区已很不稳定了(有四种不稳定形式),此时平时不起作用的外因也可调制震源过程和触发地震。这种被调制了的震源过程所引起的前兆的出现时间就与外因出现的时间具有一定的相关性。在实际中发现外因出现日期与前兆出现日期同步时(此日称调制显示日或同步日)则预报转入短临阶段。此后要加强观测,特别要注意外因再出现的日期和前兆集中出现的日期发震。

Abstract:

In 1978, we based on the temporal fluctuation of precursors preceding the 1975 Haicheng earthquake with magnitude 7.3 to propose the modulation mode^[1]. This model combined the source process with both external factor action and precursor in causation. From this model we had discussed the preliminary way toward the earthquake prediction with accuracy of day. In 1980 and 1981, we discussed farther this model and forcasting^[2][8].This paper will generalize the modulation model and present a lot of examples for earthquake prediction.